GOVERNOR MODEL · v0.3 beta Experimental
Democrats have a narrow edge in the 2026 governor outlook.
Updated September 29, 2026 · all 36 governor forecasts use inputs through September 26, 2026
Frozen September 26, 2026 governor outlook · 100,000 draws · run GOV-20260926-100K-S260831.
2026 GOVERNORS
Current governor estimates
Projected margin from the experimental model. Select a state in the map for race details.
Model status
Experimental
Safe DLikely DLean DTilt DToss-upTilt RLean RLikely RSafe RIndependentNo 2026 race
COYNTOSS governor projection. The bar groups seats by current forecast rating; non-up seats are shown at the ends.
CLOSEST RACES
The eight closest races
Ordered by absolute projected margin. Positive numbers favor Democrats; negative numbers favor Republicans.
| State | Rating | Projected margin | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading closest governor races… | |||
POLLING CONTEXT
Polls used by the model
These surveys are included in the governor model’s polling blend.
Latest poll
September 23, 2026
| Date | Race | Pollster | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 | Georgia | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 likely voters | Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 46% · Rick Jackson (R) 48% |
| Fielded Sep 19–Sep 22, 2026 | Texas | Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 likely voters | Gina Hinojosa (D) 46% · Greg Abbott (R) 50% |
| Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | Iowa | Marist University | 1,050 registered voters | Rob Sand (D) 54% · Zach Lahn (R) 42% |
| Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | Texas | Marist University | 1,139 registered voters | Gina Hinojosa (D) 49% · Greg Abbott (R) 46% · Other (O) 1% |
| Fielded Sep 16–Sep 20, 2026 | Michigan | Suffolk University | 500 likely voters | Jocelyn Benson (D) 50.6% · John James (R) 34.4% |
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 20, 2026 | California | SurveyUSA / ABC 10News–Union-Tribune | 1,000 adults | Xavier Becerra (D) 55% · Steve Hilton (R) 33% |
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 19, 2026 | Texas | Texas Southern University / YouGov | 1,800 likely voters | Gina Hinojosa (D) 45% · Greg Abbott (R) 49% |
| Fielded Sep 8–Sep 14, 2026 | California | Citrin Center / POLITICO / TrueDot | 1,983 likely voters | Xavier Becerra (D) 54% · Steve Hilton (R) 36% |
| Fielded Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026 | Texas | NBC News/Mason-Dixon | 625 likely voters | Gina Hinojosa (D) 41% · Greg Abbott (R) 48% |
METHODOLOGY
How it works
- Baseline. State partisan lean is combined with the national generic-ballot margin: 65% of state lean and 55% of the generic ballot.
- Candidates and incumbents. Candidate experience is capped at ±3 points; incumbency adds ±2.5 points; challenger quality is capped at ±2.
- Expert ratings. Cook and Sabato ratings are translated to approximate margins (Toss-up 0, Lean ±5, Likely ±10, Safe/Solid ±18) and averaged.
- Polling. Polls use a 30-day half-life and receive more weight as effective polling weight accumulates, up to a 90% ceiling.
Limitations. The incumbent-history adjustment was selected using pre-2014 data and evaluated on 254 usable governor races from 2004–2022. Historical polling and expert-rating series were not consistently reconstructable, so the poll blend and uncertainty tiers remain provisional.